He’s not doomed, for the simple reason that no Republican is doomed in a year like this one unless they’re running in a D+15 jurisdiction. Pennsylvania is considerably redder than that. Oz will have a fighting chance all the way to Election Day.
And there’s something else working for him, the John Fetterman health crisis. It may be that complications from his stroke will leave Fetterman unable to campaign in earnest this summer and fall, either forcing Dems to replace him on the ballot with someone less popular or asking Pennsylvania swing voters to gamble that he’ll be able to do the job of a senator if they elect him. As I write this, Fetterman still has yet to return to the trail despite having had his heart scare more than a month ago. Maybe doubts about his fitness will tip the scales to Oz in the end.
But as things stand today, there’s no way to absorb this AARP poll and not come away thinking the GOP is at dire risk of losing this seat in a national environment in which they shouldn’t be losing anywhere that’s remotely competitive. Ask yourself where you’d expect a generic Republican candidate to be polling in Pennsylvania knowing that Biden’s job approval there looks like this. Read more…